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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."